Since resuming work after the 2026 Spring Festival, the tungsten market has not entered a buffer period for demand verification, but instead has experienced a surge in prices driven by sentiment and supply. On the third day after work resumed, prices of major tungsten raw materials and tungsten scrap had already risen by about 10%. According to a survey by China Tungsten Online, against the backdrop of current high tungsten prices, the contradiction between macro narratives and industry realities is becoming increasingly prominent, and the mentality of tungsten market participants is also undergoing significant differentiation.
Some industry insiders continue to be bullish, elevating this round of tungsten price increases to the level of national strategy and resource security, believing it to be an inevitable result of a structurally tight balance between supply and demand. Currently, international geopolitical games have exacerbated supply chain anxiety for key minerals. Tungsten, as an irreplaceable strategic resource in defense, aerospace, and new energy fields, is undeniably important, and related application demand is resilient. China's tungsten reserves account for a dominant share globally, but tightening domestic mining quotas, stricter environmental and safety requirements, and enhanced regulation of illegal mining have led to insufficient effective supply elasticity. Post-holiday mine resumption was slow, resulting in limited spot market circulation and further strengthening supply-side support.
Some participants explicitly expressed concern, believing that the continuous and erratic rise in tungsten prices has deviated from fundamental support. Short-term supply and demand tightness stems more from policy influence, the impact of leading companies, and market speculation than from synchronous growth in actual end-user consumption. The incremental demand from genuine industrial upgrading is still limited, and downstream companies in cemented carbide and tungsten materials face increased cost pressures, with some already experiencing contract performance trust crises and forced production cuts. Historical experience shows that price surges driven by sentiment are likely to be followed by a pullback; caution is needed regarding the adjustment pressure caused by a disconnect between funding and real demand.
The majority of market participants are cautious observers who neither blindly chase highs nor are overly bearish. The current tungsten market has entered a phase of "known unknowns": supply contraction and geopolitical premiums are certain, but downstream absorption capacity and marginal policy changes are highly uncertain. For traders and downstream purchasing companies, the current operational difficulties are immense. Purchasing at high prices will result in huge losses from high-cost inventory should prices fall; maintaining low inventory levels raises concerns about continued supply hoarding leading to a shortage of goods and missed orders. This anxiety has driven the market's mainstream operations back to rigid demand.
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65% wolframite concentrate price: RMB 760,000/ton, up 65.2% from the beginning of the year.
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65% scheelite concentrate price: RMB 759,000/ton, up 65.4% from the beginning of the year.
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Ammonium paratungstate (APT) price: RMB 1,130,000/ton, up 68.7% from the beginning of the year.
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European APT price: USD 1650-1900/mtu (equivalent to RMB 1 million-1.151 million/ton), up 92.9% from the beginning of the year.
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Tungsten powder price: RMB 1850/kg, up 71.3% from the beginning of the year.
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Tungsten carbide powder price: RMB 1800/kg, up 73.1% from the beginning of the year.
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Cobalt powder price: RMB 580/kg, up 11.5% from the beginning of the year.
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70% ferrotungsten price: RMB 1.08 million/ton, up 66.2% from the beginning of the year.
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European ferrotungsten price: USD 206-220/kg W (equivalent to RMB 987,000-1.054 million/ton), up 54.9% from the beginning of the year.
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Scrap tungsten rods prices: RMB 960/kg, up 60% from the beginning of the year.
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Scrap tungsten drill bits prices: RMB 940/kg, up 62% from the beginning of the year.
